Thirteen could be an unlucky number in the Capcom Pro Tour again

A lot of people have broken down the what if regarding the Capcom Pro Tour global rankings had the 2018 format been used last year.

As it turns out, the top 31 players would have been the same with the exception of two players: Filipino Champ would be in and Luffy would be out.

(cheap plug, in my book, I talk about both of these guys and different situations they were in, go get my book here)

What I’m curious is how close other players were to getting in.

Brian F was one of the biggest casualties of the format last year. He went 13-11 in Capcom Pro Tour Top 8s. Thirteen wins was tied for 11th among everyone who made a Top 8. In fact, look at just those who got 13 wins.

Player MW ML 25CB% 25CL%
Caba1370.1800.827
Mono1370.2050.787
Luffy1390.1850.836
Dogura1390.1910.830
Moke1390.1820.825
Big Bird13100.2410.822
Haitani13100.2520.819
Brian F13110.2440.762
Justin Wong13130.2320.891

If that were a Top 8 of an event this year, it would make for must see viewing regardless of which 8 of the 9 you choose. We would get a F.A.N.G.!

But three of those nine didn’t make the Capcom Cup. That’s kind of wild. And they would not have benefited from the 2018 point structure.

When last year’s 31 players were determined, I made note of the discrepancy in wins. A player reached Capcom Cup with just 4 wins in Top 8s. Meanwhile, guys like Brian F seemed to be playing every week. What more could they have done?

Consider this: Brian F’s .571 strength of schedule in Top 8s last year was higher than 19 players who qualified for Capcom Cup. His .762 closeout rate, while below the average by 40 points, was higher than two other players who got in. His stats were there with everyone! He had a tough schedule and did well. And yet, no golden ticket.

Without knowing the point totals it seemed that getting 10 wins under the 2017 structure was going to be enough to get in. For the most part, that held up. There was Brian F, Caba and Mono, all who didn’t get in. Then there were four other players who had at least 10 wins and did not get in. While there are cries of “Why,” each of those players had a “yeah, but” scenario that plays into why they did not get in.

My curiosity led me to wonder how many wins it would take to get in regardless of the point schedule. We might not have to look far for the answer.

After the CPT 2018 announcement, several people did a what if, taking the 2018 structure and applying it to 2017 to see what changes there would have been. As mentioned earlier, not much changes.

Seeing this makes me think three things are probably going to take place this year.

1. My initial guess when seeing the point structure was that it will take about 700 points to get to Capcom Cup this year.

Under the 2017 schedule using the 2018 point totals, 703 would have been enough to get in provided there were no snipers in the regional finals. However, there was one sniper, so that bumps to 711 points.

Will we have another player eat up many events like Punk did? It’s possible. If someone doesn’t do that, the standings might be more of hills to a valley instead of a mountain to a valley. In any event, 700 points is a good projection.

2. If 13 wins isn’t enough to get to Capcom Cup, don’t be surprised when it’s 15 this year.

Yes, match win totals is not the barometer nor the requirement, but it is an indicator of how a player’s year has gone. For 2018, our (soon-to-be) snubbed competitor will have a good win total. He or she could go 15-5 and that might not be enough. This will be partially caused by the ranking events, where if you don’t get to grand final, it’s almost a wash.

Someone could start in losers bracket Top 8 and get bumped at losers final. That’s 3 wins … and only 40 points to show for it. Do that five times over the course of a year, and there’s no way a player will reach the 700-point threshold.

3. More players who win events won’t make it to Capcom Cup.

Given there were 71 events last year, someone was bound to get denied even if we had someone like a Punk eating up events. On this list were 12 players, including Brian F, Caba and Mono. Again, everyone on this list of win-and-didn’t-get-in has a “yeah, but” so perhaps it’s justified.

Looking at this year’s format, we might be in for more of the same, or we could see some of the heartbreaking totals taken to an even higher extreme.