It could be a wild start to the Capcom Pro Tour season again


The Capcom Pro Tour season is underway. I’m excited. I hope you’re excited. It’s a new season, and this could be one of the most anticipated Capcom Pro Tour seasons in a long while.

It all begins in The South, where Final Round XXI once again is the initial stop on the tour. A lot can happen in just this one tournament.

For starters, someone will likely punch their ticket to Capcom Cup right here. Premier events are not automatic qualifiers into the dance. However, with the expected cutoff at 700 points, winning the tournament should be enough to get in, as the champion will pick up 700 points on the spot.

And then the champion can rest up, study their opponents the next 9 months … nah. We all know this is going to be a grind to December and that champion will be grinding like thousands of others all the way through the year.

Five players who made the Top 8 in 2016 qualified for Capcom Cup. The following year, seven of the Top 8 made it.

If there’s anything Final Round will let us know about the upcoming season, it’s that we can expect the majority of the Top 8 to get to Capcom Cup or at the very least contend.

What about the in-game totals?

Expect more mid-round comebacks in the Top 8.

The mid-round comeback rate at Final Round XX was higher than last year’s overall Top 8 average, going at .282, 27th highest among the 71 events.

At Final Round XIX two years ago, the mid-round comeback rate was an absurd .341! If it were part of the 2017 season, it would have ranked third highest overall and second highest live event.

Why?

A lot of the numbers point to this, and I think it has something to do with the first event of the year. Final Round XIX was one of the first Street Fighter V events of the 2016 season and the first event of the 2017 season.

Tension is probably at its highest even though it’s the first event of the year. People are looking at everyone’s moves, hoping to gain any sort of knowledge and then use that as the year goes on.

But in looking at the past two Final Round tournaments, the numbers shouldn’t be taken as the way the season goes.

The mid-round comeback rate is one of those.

I also took a look at the volatility of each tournament. Think about this scenario: a player takes the lead at the mid-round mark only to lose it and then suddenly trail in the late round. But that player still ends up winning. It seemed like that happened a lot when I reviewed Final Round XX, so I decided to look it up.

These volatile rounds — where one player has the lead at the mid round, trails at the start of the late round and comes back to win — seemed to happen a lot. How often? What was the percentage of rounds played that were like that?

Final Round XIX: .216
Final Round XX: .214

XX had the 16th highest volatility rate among the events on the Capcom Pro Tour last year. If XIX were part of last year, it would have been a sliver ahead. Here’s a list of all of the events that were higher last year.

Event Rounds Volatility Rate
Celtic Throwdown1120.304
CPT Online Asia 3890.270
FV Cup990.263
Furia Tica960.260
Combo Breaker1110.252
Thunderstruck1000.250
Fighter's Spirit1110.234
Red Bull Battlegrounds (North America Regional Final)1420.232
Fight in Rio Revenge1040.231
Lima Salty 4960.229
Fight Club NRW1010.228
Versus Fighting Cup (Latin America Regional Final)1450.228
Northwest Majors1230.228
Saigon Cup1100.218
Dreamhack Summer1070.215
Final Round XX1030.214

Not surprising that Celtic Throwdown is at the top by a lot. It really was an outlier tournament (oh and they did LSF/WF/LF/GF, but I’ll save that argument for the first tourney that does it). But it is notable that four premier events are within the top 16 along with Final Round XX in terms of volatility.

With the last two Final Round tournaments playing out as it has, I would expect a similar volatility rate come this weekend when the Top 8 go for the title. If you think someone has a round locked up, think again, especially this weekend. There’s too much on the line at these premiers, and we’re likely to see a lot more risk taking that could pay off.